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 A perspective on our business Posted by JanetK_CA 1/5/10
Posted by Laura_V on 1/5/10 6:34pm

I'm going to take a risk of being slammed for being negative, but I've been wanting to comment on a certain attitude about our business for some time in the interest of maintaining some perspective.

Lately, I've seen lots of people referring to the "slowdown" or "slump" in our business and I think this is possibly misleading and potentially harmful for long-term planning for those who haven't been around for long. I don't consider myself an expert nor do I have time to research this or elaborate on this, but others will probably chime in their 2 cents.

It seems to me that, to a large extent, our business is driven by interest rates, especially where refi's are concerned. The lower the interest rates, the more attractive it is for borrowers to refinance. For some time now, we have seen historically low interest rates. This also makes it more attractive for people to buy homes, impacting purchase deals, as well. But at some time, it is as inevitable as all business cycles are, that rates will eventually start going back up.

To oversimplify a bit, the "refi-mania" that caused the boom in the loan signing business in the early part of the last decade (sounds weird to say that...Smile) was the aberration, NOT the norm! When people here talk about things getting back to "normal", I suspect that they sometimes have things backwards. What we are calling a slowdown may really be more like getting back to normal. Unless someone is moving or getting out of an ARM, they don't have much incentive to refinance again. Add to that that the numbers of signing agents (competing for a smaller volume of work) has increased - sometimes to a great extent, even after considering attrition - and it looks like current conditions may be closer to the new "normal" than the times we look back on with fondness... Wink

It also seems like more and more of our colleagues here are pursuing this as a part time activity. So the business has changed. I just think this is something that we all - especially newer people - need to keep in mind when setting long term plans for ourselves and our businesses. This will vary by market and by individual (we all have different needs and skills), but I believe that those who see the big picture and plan accordingly will be much better off in the future.
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