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"How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US?"
Posted by JanetK_CA of CA on 7/24/20 12:25am Msg #32147
This important information concisely presents some vague ideas I've had based on all the interviews I've read and heard from doctors and COVID survivors, presented much better than I could have done. (It's not directly business related and shouldn't be political, so I figured this was the best place to share it. I apologize, if anyone disagrees about that last point.)

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How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?
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by Franklin Veaux in Quora
Updated July 11, 2020
Professional Writer
There are two problems with this question.
It neglects the law of large numbers; and
It assumes that one of two things happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If one percent of the population dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only one percent die! Just one percent! One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive?
For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization.
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
10 will have permanent lung damage.
3 will have strokes.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to chronic weakness and loss of coordination.
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes:
3,282,000 people dead.
62,358,000 hospitalized.
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage.
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage.
9,846,000 people with strokes.
6,564,000 people with muscle weakness.
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

That's the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get. The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%.” I f we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting COVID-19.

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Messages in this Thread
 "How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US?" - JanetK_CA on 7/24/20 12:25am
 Another perspective - Lee/AR on 7/24/20 8:47am
 This is interesting. It's certainly not about just the -  MW/VA on 7/24/20 9:13am
 One word answers your question... "Fear" - Linda_H/FL on 7/24/20 11:52am
 Actually, I think "Fear" is irrelevant in this case. -  JanetK_CA on 7/24/20 9:20pm
 Re: One word answers your question... "Fear" - Luckydog on 7/25/20 12:17pm
 Agree 100% - but I say 30 days - 2 weeks is barely - Linda_H/FL on 7/25/20 1:03pm
 Re: Agree 100% - but I say 30 days - 2 weeks is barely - Luckydog on 7/25/20 8:23pm
 Re: "How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the US?" - shooterclay on 7/24/20 8:45pm
 Yes. Great comparison. We shouldn't forget those, either. -  JanetK_CA on 7/24/20 9:24pm
 Re: Yes. Great comparison. We shouldn - shooterclay on 7/29/20 3:59pm



 
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