Posted by LynnNC on 3/1/09 3:34pm
Msg #279143

The future of our business

I am very concerned about the future of our business. Business slowed a great deal last year after credit was tightend, and picked-up again the last two months when interest rates dropped and people began refinancing. I see more loans where the borrowers have to bring cash to the table than I do where they receive cash out.

I believe we can't count on low interest rates for long as I hear and read much that the stimulus package will result in inflation and an increase interest rates.

We should try to figure out what jobs will be available due to the stimulus package. Here in NC a job was created by the governor with a salary of $98,000 for someone to oversee the stimulus payout for the state.

Reply by jba/fl on 3/1/09 6:55pm
Msg #279152

I think that you should apply - you would be

better probably than many others that will want the job. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Reply by JanetK_CA on 3/1/09 8:58pm
Msg #279163

I think you make an excellent point, Lynn. I have been slammed lately and I'm very happy to be busy, but I don't see this as a long term phenomenon. "Refi Mania" of a few years back was fueled by lowering interest rates, after a long period of rates being relatively much higher. (Remember 18% back in the 80's?) Everyone who owned a home represented potential business. By way of example, I handled a refi a couple of days ago for a couple for whom I'd done another one a while back. He commented that I shouldn't expect to see them again, because "with this rate" they expected to be sticking with the loan they now have - and didn't have any plans to move. And this wasn't the first time that had happened.

There will always be some people moving, etc. but the potential market share has been greatly diminished over the past several years. At some point, interest rates are likely to creep up over time and the cycle will reverse, but probably over a period of decades - not any time soon. I'm not trying to be a doomsayer, just trying to face the realities as I see them.

Reply by jba/fl on 3/1/09 9:08pm
Msg #279165

I am also hearing that people have had their loans in the pipeline 4-6 months and are just so happy to get this done. Still doing 5.5% +/-, but have seen in the 4% range also. Haven't had any bringing money to table on refi's tho. But then again, I have not been as busy as I would like either. Well, I guess none of us have as much as we would like...LOL.

Reply by Susan Fischer on 3/1/09 10:52pm
Msg #279171

It may be that our industry's bubble burst along with the

rest of the housing bubbles. The equity is gone, so cash-outs are few and far between. Most of what I see are simply refis to lower rates/payments. Not many payouts due to lower values. Solid, or at least working for now, borrowers are trying to hold onto what they have. Garage/yard sales are up, and people are paying off credit card debt.

If this is your full-time gig in a saturated area, pickins may get even slimmer. Those who have more than one iron in the fire, or don't require the full-time, good ol' days of fat bank accounts are pretty much gone.

If you're looking for other kinds of work that may be generated, there are some Oregon start-ups specializing in "trash-outs," or Property Restoration. Cleaning up foreclosed homes. One guy started up after bailing from real estate nine months ago. He works 7 days a week, and is having big time trouble collecting his pay. After 9 months working for BANKS, he's now in foreclosure. How sick and wrong is that?

The middle class has lost trillions of dollars to Big Business. The largest transfer of wealth that was to go to the next generation, instead has been stolen and divided up between the top 5% of the Fattest Cats. Bernie Madoff, with his theft of over $50B is just the tip of the iceberg. The last 8 years has been a real free-for-all for the moneyed, and the SEC under Bush is hugely to blame.

Home loans and refis are getting back to the way they used to be - carefully made. There are still many bad actors to catch, much to try to recover, and a willingness for Americans to reign in the buy-now-pay-later mentality. Credit for the big stuff, cash and carry for the rest. aving for Wants, and spending only for Needs. Keeping the Needs real.

I don't know how all those 5 Percenters sleep at night on their private islands, their (our) wealth tucked away in banks on other islands, but I do know Americans are not defeated. These are serious times, with more fires to put out than all that raged last year all over the globe, but, by God, we're serious about putting them out, one by one, and rebuilding.

I believe remote closings will always be around because it's a really workable system. Who's left standing in the downturn is up to each of us, along with some luck.

Reply by JanetK_CA on 3/2/09 1:31am
Msg #279174

Re: It may be that our industry's bubble burst along with the

In all fairness, I don't think those "5%"-ers should all be painted with the same brush. I'm sure there were many who made their money through good ol' honest hard work and ingenuity. However, the concept of industry self-regulation hasn't seemed to have worked and all too many have taken advantage. I caught just a bit of Sixty Minutes tonight - something about Bernie Madoff. Wish I had seen it. [Anyone know if it's available on-line?]

(I suppose we probably should have moved this over to "Just Politics"...)

Reply by MistarellaFL on 3/2/09 6:45am
Msg #279176

I am seeing purchases almost excusively

with a HECM thrown in occasionally.
One of the TC's I work with is going to be keeping me super-busy throughout March,
and after that, well, who knows?
Currently I am working on the marketing of another business venture, to fill-in the
revenue cracks the rest of the year, and years to come.
It would be nice to see both ventures do well the rest of the year, and I am doing
everything possible to keep everyone and everything afloat.
So far, so good.
Let me just say this: Market, market, market.

Reply by Les_CO on 3/2/09 10:21am
Msg #279198

Re: It may be that our industry's bubble burst along with the

First of all this should be in “Just Politics.” But how anyone could think that George W. Bush, could be smart enough to in any way influence, guide, or be responsible for the actions of a really smooth, smart, life-long Democrat like Bernard Madoff is not only deluded, but smoking some really good stuff. Madoff not only contributed millions to various NY and FL Democrats, he did it with other people’s money. A prime principal of the Democratic Party. Also if you think the President makes laws you need a civics lesson. And while I’m at it let us not forget our excellent lawmakers like Barney Frank, and Christopher Dodd, who deserve much of the credit for the current housing/lending/banking problem.

Reply by LynnNC on 3/2/09 10:31am
Msg #279200

Re: It may be that our industry's bubble burst along with the

I don't see this topic as about politics, but, what will happen to our business in the event of inflation and increased interest rates.

Reply by Les_CO on 3/2/09 10:52am
Msg #279207

Re: It may be that our industry's bubble burst along with the

Not the topic, Susans answer. Unless everyone pays cash this business will still be here. There could still be some purchase/sale business, but that probably would handled by the one or two remaning Title Companies.

Reply by MW/VA on 3/2/09 9:17am
Msg #279186

There is certainly a major shift going on in the business. IMO that will actually help in the long-run. We're not going to see all those huge cash-out loans made on inflated values, that's for sure. My business is actually up considerably from last year. The area I live in is a& bit unique, with a large military population. There have been a lot of VA & FHA steamline refi's
lately. I'll remain optimistic, because I still think the American housing/mortgage industries are here to stay. All markets fluctuate, ask any investor. The stock market has "bull" & "bear" periods. This isn't a lot different. I've seen a lot of purchases of foreclosures, also.
There certainly have been a lot of notaries that left after the "bubble" for full-time work.
It's a personal/business decision.

Reply by JanetK_CA on 3/2/09 4:03pm
Msg #279242

"There certainly have been a lot of notaries that left after the "bubble" for full-time work."

Very true - and a trend that I hope continues! Those of us who are committed and serious about this as a career will probably do OK, especially if we can collectively stay enough below the radar so that training new notaries and "NSAs" doesn't again become the "in" thing to do...

I think we're still a long way from a shortage of notaries. It would be great if we could achieve some kind of equilibrium between the number of remote closers and the amount of business out there, rather than having to deal with a super-saturated market. If that were to happen, we might even see fees come back up to respectable levels more widely across the board. If XYZ (and other groups) start again on a marketing and training blitz, then I don't think overall things will be looking as rosy for the medium term.

I'm sure we're mostly very pleased to be busy again, but if we get too carried away talking about how great it is, we might end up shooting ourselves in the foot. Just a thought...

Reply by Lee/AR on 3/2/09 5:11pm
Msg #279252

Wise & timely reminder, Janet. n/m

Reply by Victoria/NJ on 3/2/09 9:51am
Msg #279196

Real estate is a constant

After 25+ years in the real estate industry, I have experienced the highs and the lows - however, real estate remains a large domestic commodity.

It is highly doubtful that even with 1-10 homes in foreclosure, that hundreds of thousands of homes across the U.S. will sit financially stagnate. There will be a new buyer, a new seller and new financing.

Financing options will turn to the private hard-money lenders as it has in the past.

As for doing to mobile closers/closings for banks, title agencies and signing companies, the industry will stall and eventually re-gain momentum.

The place to look for new business is with title agencies insuring double closings and private lenders (groups or individuals).

You have to create business to stay in business.