Posted by ME/NJ on 9/18/07 9:31pm
Msg #211869

Funny how the seasoned vets know

The writting is on the wall in BIG BOLD LETTERS, the signing business is dead and will take "YEARS" to recover.

I see a few notaries saying they are still getting some business and I am glad to see that, but in big picture since August EOM the industry died.

History of one of my big clients

2005 - 40-50 closings a month
2006 - 30-35/month
2007 (Jan - March) 15-20 April -June 15month August 13month Sept 4 so far

3 sub prime TC of mine that had me rocking up until late 2006 - Now I think I have closed maybe 10 loans all year from the 3.

Reply by JanetK_CA on 9/18/07 9:52pm
Msg #211874

Very telling numbers. Those of us who have been around for a little while have some previous history to compare to, giving a different perspective. And I couldn't agree more about the "writing on the wall"!

The first time I mentioned something to this effect, I was accused of being afraid of competition from newbies. If only that were the truth...

Reply by jba/fl on 9/18/07 10:00pm
Msg #211878

As many things are, the key word is 'cyclical'. Or, "What goes up must come down." Or, "The bigger they are, the harder they fall".

Reply by MelissaCT on 9/18/07 10:11pm
Msg #211882

Re: Cyclical

Maybe, but it's not like they'll fall again tomorrow, or next year, or in 5 years...How long can you hold on to the downward cycle?

Reply by JanetK_CA on 9/20/07 1:34pm
Msg #212260

Re: Cyclical

Plus, there have been some fundamental changes over the last several years that aren't likely to undo themselves, like the continuing proliferation of new people entering this field. I'm sure many will fall by the wayside, but with all the different parties jumping on the training bandwagon, it seems that they continue to be brought in faster than they fall out. That pace may reverse itself for a while, but I can't help but feel that long term will trend in that direction.

Another significant change is the significant reduction in fees by so many hiring entities. I feel some of this may correct somewhat - and there will always be the exceptions - but I'd bet that for a very long time, the overall trend will be down, as it has been for at least a year.

I'm not trying to promote fear or gloom and doom. But I think, if we're smart, we will all be working on a dispassionate analysis and re-evaluation of our business plans. And I suggest that not only should we be asking IF we can survive this cycle and if so, how would we go about doing it, but also if that is really even the smartest business decision. (I imagine the "seasoned" folks here are probably well into this process...) I think all these factors need to be considered.

Reply by Susan Fischer on 9/18/07 10:36pm
Msg #211885

Truly. Oh, if only... But, no, it's a reality check. One

can believe all one wants, but the realities of a $9,000,000,000,000.00 National deficit are hitting home.

Reply by CJ on 9/18/07 11:28pm
Msg #211888

I used to work for a headhunting firm.

I did admin, and everyone was so excited about all the money they were making on commissions placing computer people. At break time, everyone was talking about the tech stocks they invested in (Everyone had Cisco). Because we only placed computer people, everyone was very in tune to the computer scene. We would get magazines delivered that had cartoons of bulls on the front dressed like pimps.

Then one day, the stock market when down. I recall it was March 15th, 2000, becuase it struck me it was 'the Ides of March" like in Shakespear's Julius Ceaser. We thought it was a temporary bump, but it kept going down, down down.

Companies cut back, no one wanted to place our candidates, they laid off lots of recruiters, and of course, we all lost money in the stock market.

I happened to switch jobs, and got bounced around a bit before I became a notary. I lucked out that I became a signing agent before it was big news.

Well, I think it took about 5 years for the tech jobs to come back. I don't think Cisco ever got back were it was before it crashed.

Anyway, this is what I saw, and I am wondering now if this is the same thing. It was big, but it has run its course. I think if it comes back, it will take a few years.

I ALMOST went to apprasial school this year. That would have meant no signings a couple of nights a week, studying in my "free" time, then after a year, looking for someone who would not mind training their compition until I got the required hours, and splitting the fee with me, then looking for my own work. I am glad that at the last minute, I didn't do that.

On the other hand, maybe they need apprasiers with all these forclosures on the market.

Reply by Lee/AR on 9/19/07 1:04am
Msg #211894

Re: I used to work for a headhunting firm.

"Anyway, this is what I saw, and I am wondering now if this is the same thing. It was big, but it has run its course. I think if it comes back, it will take a few years."

I think you see the future very clearly. The boom is over and it isn't coming back. By the time the current situation plays itself out, the whole industry will have changed. I don't think we'll be a big part of those changes.

Reply by Larry/Ca on 9/19/07 1:15am
Msg #211896

yep, Sepember it like black tuesday...

but like the stock market it will recover as the way people get home loans has forever changed. Nationwide lenders will continue to need local notaries to close their loans. Signing at your local bank or Title company is a thing of the past. This is really a young business as the internet which enabled it is only some 12-13 years old. While I am not optomistic about the next few months I think this business will slowly recover. Being a notary has never been an occupation and being a signing agent has only produced a living in the recent past.

Reply by Todd/OH on 9/19/07 9:22am
Msg #211910

It will all recover. The seasoned vets know it, but

they also know that it probably won't be any change next month. It will likely be sometime in 2008. This is going to be a long trough and many of us won't survive. The sub prime players that caused this mess are licking their wounds in bankruptcy court. Let's hope they serve jail time. In the meantime, the honest among us must wait it out.

Reply by JohnnyB on 9/19/07 10:37am
Msg #211931

I have been very steady for the past four weeks. You need to change strategies in this type of market. If you do that, you can survive.

But please keep coming with the negative e-mails. It may persuade some of the competition to head towards the exit.