Posted by 101livescan on 10/8/12 10:41am
Msg #437645
Strong Indicators for NSAs
The August Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services shows a significant increase in prepayment rates in August– a key indicator of refinance activity. In fact, prepayment rates in August rose above those seen in the “mini refinance waves” of both 2009 and 2010, hitting their highest levels since 2005. LPS Applied Analytics Senior Vice President Herb Blecher explains that the impact of this increase has been both pronounced and broad-based.
“Our analysis showed an increase in prepayment activity across the entire combined loan-to-value (CLTV) continuum,” Blecher said. “While those loans with equity, particularly 80 percent CLTV and below, have much higher prepayment speeds, the impact of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) was also clear. Loans with a CLTV of more than 120 percent saw the greatest uptick – a 65 percent increase for the year to date. However, it is also becoming evident that loans originated in 2007 and earlier have diminished prospects for conventional refinancing opportunities. Fewer than 30 percent of these vintages remain both active and current, and on average, they are marked by larger negative equity positions and lower credit scores. That said, HARP might yet represent a viable refi option for a good portion of this pool.”
Foreclosure inventory in August remained more than eight times the 1995-2005 pre-crisis period, despite national foreclosure inventory dropping to the lowest point since October 2010. The national foreclosure average masks the stark difference between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states. In judicial states, foreclosure inventory was at a near-record high of 6.49 percent (despite a 14 percent month-over-month increase in judicial state foreclosure sales), as opposed to 2.28 percent in non-judicial states. Overall, foreclosure sales were up 12 percent nationally in August, but remain 33 percent below their September 2010 peak.
Continuing its decline, the inventory of loans 90 or more days delinquent is now almost 50 percent off its January 2010 peak. The bulk of the remaining inventory has now been past due for more than nine months, with a full 43 percent past due for 12 months or more. Still, signs of ongoing modification activity remain in late-stage delinquency, with loans six or more months past due ? but not yet in foreclosure ? showing the greatest increase in cures from the prior month's status.
As reported in LPS' First Look release, other key results from LPS' latest Mortgage Monitor report include:
​Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: ​6.87%
​Month-over-month change in delinquency rate: ​-2.30%
​Total U.S. foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: ​4.04%
​Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: ​-1.00 %
​States with highest percentage of non-current* loans: ​FL, MS, NJ, NV, NY
​States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans: ​MT, AK, SD, WY, ND
*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
Notes: Totals are extrapolated based on LPS Applied Analytics' loan-level database of mortgage assets.
About the Mortgage Monitor
LPS manages the nation's leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information on nearly 40 million loans across the spectrum of credit products. The company's research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for LPS' monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit
http://www.lpsvcs.com/LPSCorporateInformation/CommunicationCenter/DataReports/Pages/Mortgage-Monitor.aspx
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Reply by Pro Mobile Notary on 10/8/12 6:06pm
Msg #437712
Prepays are for loans that closed recently is the result of the origination that was begun anywhere between 2 and 4 months earlier. We are in October and the report is for August prepays, which means those loan applications were begun anywhere between April and June. This has ZERO relevance to what is happening today or what might happen tomorrow. gearing your business to what this release states is like driving down the highway looking only in your rear view mirror. While the story may be interesting, but that is all there is to it.
There is a disclaimer on all stock market prospectus that clearly states "past performance is no indication of future results."
Just because there was a lot of stuff going on in the past is no indication of what is to come.
I have been an economist for 4 decades and have specialized in housing issues for the past 2 decades. I know what I am talking about. If you want a better indication of where things might be headed you can look at the weekly new loans originated. The Mortgagee Bankers Assn releases the data for the prior week's new loans originated every Wednesday morning.
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Reply by 101livescan on 10/8/12 10:24pm
Msg #437733
While I appreciate your comments, building of new homes seems to be on an uptick here and in other parts of the country. The only harness is that there is not enough product for investors to purchase investment properties. I'm still seeing a lot of new homes on the market for sale, at great rates. We may be an isolated geographic area. I'll be traveling to Sacramento this week, I'll be watching what's going on up and down the state.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000120089
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