Posted by 101livescan on 1/7/13 9:47am
Msg #449294

Quick Takes on 2013 by Freddie Mac

Quick Takes on 2013

By SVP, Interim Head Single-Family Business Paul Mullings on January 7, 2013

Now that we’re officially in the New Year, I want to share some of the expectations I and other Freddie Mac executives have for 2013.

Per Freddie Mac’s latest forecast, as the housing recovery spreads and stabilizes, we’re likely to see less refinancing and more purchase mortgages for homebuying. That’s because so much of the nation’s refi demand already has been met thanks to historically low mortgage rates and the Home Affordable Refinance Program’s success. On the other hand, home prices are poised to outpace inflation (about 3 percent vs. 1.9 percent); jobs, incomes, and household growth are expected to rise; and mortgage rates will likely stay below 4 percent. This should give more families the confidence to buy for the first time and more homeowners the confidence to sell and move up. The big questions for the industry in 2013 are: 1) will rising home sales fail to make up for falling refi volumes, resulting in fewer single-family originations compared to 2012; and 2) how will lenders compete in the new environment? Either way, competition will be fierce and Freddie Mac is working hard on multiple fronts – technology and process – to help our lender customers target this year’s best opportunities.

Reply by 101livescan on 1/7/13 9:57am
Msg #449295

From Source of Title

NAR: Pending Home Sales Rise in November
press release
12/28/2012

Pending home sales increased in November for the third straight month and reached the highest level in two-and-a-half years, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 1.7 percent to 106.4 in November from a downwardly revised 104.6 in October and is 9.8 percent above November 2011 when it was 96.9. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

The index is at the highest level since April 2010 when it hit 111.3 as buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. With the exception of several months affected by tax stimulus, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 when the index reached 107.9.

Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said home sales are on a sustained uptrend. "Even with market frictions related to the mortgage process, home contract activity continues to improve. Home sales are recovering now based solely on fundamental demand and favorable affordability conditions."

On a year-over-year basis, pending home sales have risen for 19 consecutive months.

The upward momentum means existing-home sales should rise 8 to 9 percent in 2013 to approximately 5.1 million, following a 10 percent gain expected for all of 2012. The median existing-home price is projected to rise just over 4 percent in 2013, after rising more than 7 percent in 2012.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 5.2 percent to 83.3 in November and is 15.2 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index edged up 0.1 percent to 103.8 in November and is 15.2 percent above November 2011. Pending home sales in the South were unchanged at an index of 117.2 in November and are 13.9 percent higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 4.2 percent in November to 110.1, but is 3.2 percent below November 2011 with inventory constraints limiting sales.