Posted by pat/WA on 9/10/13 5:42pm
Msg #484055

Crystal Ball

Anyone have a crystal ball? When the smoke clears will there still be mobile notaries. We plan to ride it out but what if this industry never revives itself?

Reply by pat/WA on 9/10/13 5:49pm
Msg #484057

Just had a thought. Maybe the numbers sit will have to rethink how much his service it worth.

Reply by pat/WA on 9/10/13 5:49pm
Msg #484058

sorry, should have been Numbers Site

Reply by MW/VA on 9/10/13 6:50pm
Msg #484068

That's pretty funny, Pat. Yes, could be that the listing

site is worth nothing. It relies on notaries who have the money to pay for advertising.
:-)

Reply by John/CT on 9/10/13 6:49pm
Msg #484067

Mine looks pretty cloudy right now. I fear it will be a long time coming before the smoke clears. On a more positive note, I have a lot more time to browse the various forums (fora?) ... as some of you may have noticed an uptick in the number of posts I've been making lately.

Reply by MW/VA on 9/10/13 6:53pm
Msg #484069

Lots of gloom & doom on the forum these days. There's

a major slowdown, but I still think the passage of Harp3 will keep things moving. The whole mortgage industry is key to our economy, and money has to keep moving. Granted, investors might be more inclined to invest overseas, but I still hold out hope for a recovery, slow as that might be. I know I had seen a huge surge in biz over the last year. I think everyone knew those low rates couldn't last forever.

Reply by John/CT on 9/10/13 6:58pm
Msg #484073

I thought HARP 3 was pretty much "dead in the water".

Am I misinformed? (It wouldn't be the first for me.)

Reply by MW/VA on 9/10/13 7:00pm
Msg #484076

I haven't been keeping up. Is it definitely "dead"? n/m

Reply by redd on 9/10/13 7:44pm
Msg #484077

Re: I haven't been keeping up. Is it definitely "dead"?

http://themortgagereports.com/13449/harp-3-update-congress-reconvenes-september-9-2013-with-harp-3-0-now-in-committee

Reply by JanetK_CA on 9/10/13 10:22pm
Msg #484090

Re: Lots of gloom & doom on the forum these days. There's

Your hope for a "recovery" implies a return to normal, which begs the question of what is "normal? I think it's entirely possible (if not probable) that what we've seen over the past several years is the aberration, based on historically extremely low interest rates. Certainly there have been other factors and there will likely continue to be other factors. But over time, interest rates seem to be the biggest indicator of how busy we are.

Let's face it, it has been the refinance activity that has driven the high volume of work for the dramatically increased numbers of people doing this work for the past 10 or so years. Prior to that, how many of us had ever heard of a "mobile notary"? I know there are other reasons for the growth in our field (XYZ notwithstanding), but I worry for people who think that we may go back to the way things were last year, or the year before. The housing bubble that generated the boom - and the resultant extremely low interest rates that motivated the refinance frenzy after that - I believe were the anomalies.

The slowdown we're experiencing now (which I starting warning people about more than a year ago) I believe reflects the lack of incentive for people to refinance anymore. It would probably be interesting to see what the volume of refinancing and purchase/sale deals used to be in decades past, for say, the past century. My guess is that the long-term trend for the next decade or so is likely to be rising interest rates - if the economy does recover. If we run into another major crisis of some sort, all bets are off.

What I wonder is how much activity there will be when things settle down into a normal phase of buying and selling. I suspect that that volume will chase lots and lots of people out of this industry and only the strong will survive. I'm concerned for anyone whose business plan is to "hope things get better"... Not trying to be negative, just suggesting that people be prepared.

Reply by Shoshana/AZ on 9/10/13 10:42pm
Msg #484092

I totally agree with you, Janet! n/m

Reply by MW/VA on 9/11/13 9:54am
Msg #484119

I agree with you, Janet. It's that way in every industry.

A lot of people got into the real estate business during the "bubble" because there was a lot of money to be made, and when the bubble burst they got out of it.
There are notaries comparing everything to the "good old days" when all that was going on & they were paid high fees. Every market has ups & downs. You have to know "when to hold 'em & when to fold 'em, & when to walk away". ;-)

Reply by Notarysigner on 9/11/13 10:01am
Msg #484120

Very well said JanetK Here's my feelings about subject.

Although I truly enjoy the work, the process and obvious disregard for those professionals who actually want to do a great job makes me sick.

I have only been a notary for almost seven years now an definitely cannot boast of having a career in the business. I am not as optimistic as most in that fulfillment is the name of the game for me. I do NOT see a bright future as a NSA for me.

This year, my worst, I've done 44 signings total, seven in the last two months. If it wasn't for GNW my business plan would be a " business pain ". Common sense tells me this is the way to go (for me) and what I am going to focus on. I don't even want to talk to, "a middleman/woman ". It is insulting. IMO

Reply by jnew on 9/11/13 10:36am
Msg #484126

Janet has nailed it.

The problem is the signing market is down because of too many notaries and not enough work to support all of them. The companies are doing what companies do: get the most for the least price. The companies did not change the market, the notaries did. Every new notary added to the pool decreases the market value of every other notary in the pool. Basic supply and demand.

Reply by BobbiCT on 9/11/13 7:18am
Msg #484105

"Mobile" Notaries Public & Signing Agents

You wear two hats:

1. There will ALWAYS be notaries PUBLIC in the United States, performing their services as PUBLIC officials at the statutory/maximum allowed legal fee for notarial services and mileage. As costs increase and PUBLIC fees remain the same, many who entered this field not as PUBLIC servants will stop performing notarial services. (At 35 cents maximum per mile travel fee in CT, a notary PUBLIC takes a tax loss every time s/he travels for a $5 notarization.)

2. Like Attorneys whose practice is mostly real estate conveyances, there will always be non-attorney Signing Agents (who also hold a notary commission). This in my long-memory real estate refinancing slow down is normal. Appraisers, lenders (and employees who survive the layoffs), commission-based mortgage originators, attorneys, signing agents, etc. just RIDE THE TIDE like they have for many, many years. As in past years, many who leaped into this industry with Big Bucks income for "easy" pick-your-own part-time hours, who did not enter with a market analysis and business plan plus a cash reserve for slow times and without a "Plan B" for the outgoing tide, will leave the industry (particularly if they didn't pre-pay or put cash aside for their annual federal and state income taxes).

The mortgage industry and marketplace in every state is different. In my neighborhood, commercial is booming (but it is an attorney only marketplace).

Ask yourself: How many times can a homeowner "flip a mortgage" for a suck out all the equity, lower interest rate, cash back or no out-of-pocket costs mortgage? How many times when a homeowner goes to "flip a mortgage" will his/her income qualify and will the home appraise at a higher value to cover the refinance costs? In the moldy, oldy days homeowners sold their homes and moved every 5-7 years and mortgages were refinanced every 7-10 years; then came home equity lines of credits (the great secured checking account with no principal payment for the first 10 years) and then came mortgage fliping. Be grateful the Great American Dream is no longer owning the same home for 30 years and live mortgage free. Most don't own a "home"; they invest in a house and use it as a piggy bank.

Reply by Juan Chioye on 9/11/13 10:05pm
Msg #484304

Re: "Mobile" Notaries Public & Signing Agents

Strong will survive. Now its the time to let the ones that do not have the heart to continue on to simply let them do something else. Personally I will do what I can to keep this business going. If it means taking a part time job at weekends night, then so be it. But I for one cannot see being a debbie downer will do any good for anyone. I believe the attitude you have as NSA, will affect whether you will survive this slowdown or not. If you believe that NSA industry is dead, then you are right. If you think you will survive and end up stronger then ever you are right too. There is an over saturation of NSA however, and I can guess who will not make it based on attitude of posts.


But it is inconceivable to me that business will just stop. I still get 50-60 closings a month. Down from 75-90 closings I used to get. Of those lately I would say less then a third are refinances. Where as before it used to be 90 percent refinances. And an even larger percent of those closings are not even mortgage related, where as before that was the oddity or two a month. I used to work in the home improvement retail industry during the mid 2000s housing boom and crash. Sales dropped to 35 percent of previous years. We saw it as an opportunity to steal market share, so when the business increased again we could come back stronger then ever.

My prediction. Business will slow down, significantly. A lot of NSAs will quit and do something else. Business will go back to normal (pre housing market crash and crazy housing price increases.) Living room for the level headed NSAs to not only remain in business but thrive. But having a positive outlook and a determination to survive no matter what (even if it means a part time job.) would be crucial.