I don't know whether his goal was to start a trade ware or not, because he doesn't seem to understand how trade and tariffs work. Dd the EU blink first? Not really, when you consider that a) Germans don't actually WANT American cars, and b) they have strategically placed tariffs on certain American goods, designed to do political damage to Trump by targeting areas represented by his supporters.
I think EU members are willing to talk because they don't want a trade war - they want to resolve it because you don't fight with your allies. All of the proposals mentioned to reduce tariffs are part of a grander scheme to negotiate other issues. If Trump thinks he's going to beat them over the head to get what he wants, he's in for a rude awakening - this is global trade, not NY real estate. What works with one doesn't necessarily work with the other. If he starts getting intractable, they'll keep the tariffs in place.
The damage this is doing with China may be irreversible in some cases. 2/3 of the US soybean crop used to be purchased by China; they've since canceled most of their US contracts, are buying from other countries, and have even moved to have their own farmers start increased production of soybeans. That's about $14 Billion worth of a single crop, gone. Soybean prices are falling through the floor, and come harvest time in September a lot of farmers won't be able to give their crops away. HBow is that going to be explained to the farmers who bought the hype he was selling and will be watching this year's harvest rot?
As I said, I don't know whether he really wants a trade war, but he's got one now with both our allies and our adversaries. It will take a couple of months for the effects to become clear, so you can't look at numbers from BEFORE the tariff war started and claim it as proof that it is isn't having an effect. If he doesn't come to his senses and start listening to his economic advisors (the good ones, not people like Kudlow and Navarro) and start dropping the tariffs, things are going to start getting ugly in September or October.
Also, an aside about hiring - jobs are up, but wages are flat. The tax cuts have NOT trickled down to the common worker, as they were promised to do. There are more jobs available than there are people to fill them, but a) wages have only risen modestly, and b) there are a lot of jobs (such as in agriculture and construction) that aren't getting filled simply because Americans don't want to do them. Among all those immigrants that we're trying to keep out of the country are the ones who used to do those jobs, and were happy to have them.
As an example, the crabbing industry in Maryland was severally damaged this year because owners couldn't get the visas to bring in immigrants and the jobs were left unfilled.
And here's the irony - Mar-A-Lago is asking for a visa waiver to bring in 61 temporary immigrant employees, including 20 chefs because they can't find enough "qualified" Americans willing to take the jobs. They can't find 20 chefs willing to take the job? Here's a clue why - they want to pay less than they paid the chefs last year. Americas will take those kinds of jobs if you pay them a decent wage, which apparently the Trump Organization is unwilling to do. That may also explain why Mar-A-Lago was hit with so many food violations during inspections just this year alone (by contrast, The Red Hen in Lancaster VA, which Trump called "filthy", has not had any violations at all this year and a couple of immediately corrected minor ones last year). You get what you pay for, I guess. |
