I think that those numbers only tell half of the story. The other half is the number of notaries already there trying to cover the same area. So the most important number is the ratio of population to NSAs trying to service that area. That's where the intangibles on my list come into play.
I know this from my own personal experience. My rather large county (by national standards, at least) has about 3 million residents. (I only cover a part of it.) But there are so many notaries who are, or are trying to be, NSAs here that the competition is pretty fierce and it's difficult (but not impossible) for someone new to break in. It's obvious that there are many accepting the $75 offers for refi/buyer packages (sometimes including a scanback), as those blast emails almost never come back a second time.
Further, those who have extensive experience, have well established connections over a long period of time, work hard and run their businesses with smarts and professionalism (ananotary is a great example), will be favored by those companies who are willing to pay for not just competence, but excellence. There are quite a few in that category, too. I imagine it's pretty much the same in most large metropolitan areas, so things aren't going to automatically be easier for a notary just because there's a larger population.
BTW, we also have lots of small escrow and title companies here who have their own preferred or in-house notaries (when I started in this business, it was often a spouse or close friend), or they do their own signings. There are some things here that are a bit different (e.g. the cost of living), but we're not as different as you might think.
Simplistic assumptions can be misleading, or flat out wrong.
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