Join  |  Login  |   Cart    

Notary Rotary
Notary WorkJust PoliticsLeisure
Political discussion involving past and present political events, candidates and elections. Please read Msg #1 before posting.


Recession?
Posted by MikeC/TX of TX on 8/14/19 7:50pm Msg #72771
The yield curve went to full inversion, which is historically a sign of a recession in the next 10 months or so.

The yield curve refers to the dividends that Treasury bonds will yield; the way it normally works is that the longer you invest and hold the bond, the higher the yield will be - so in a strong economy, the curve trends upwards. 30-year bonds affect long term loans such as mortgages.

When investors start to abandon stocks for bonds, the yields are higher for short-term investments than they are for long-term investments - the curve inverts and it trends downwards. What has happened is that the yield for a 30-year bond is now lower than it is for a short-term bond - that's the inversion. Historically, this has happened before every recession we've had and it's the reason the markets tanked today.

Some people, including former Fed chair Yellen, are saying that it's a false indicator this time and that we're not headed for a recession. We'll know in a few months.

But our Dear Leader - who famously took credit for all the economic growth after his inauguration - even though it was just a continuation of the growth that began under his predecessor - is now desperately trying to find someone else to blame for the impending crash. He's starting with the Fed - chaired by a man HE appointed to the job - which has nothing to do with any of this. Eventually, it will become either Obama's or Hillary's fault. At no point will he acknowledge the fact that a lot of this is due to the uncertainty his ignorance of economics and economic policy are causing among investors. POTUS is supposed to lead, and he's incapable of doing that.

More importantly, he will never ever, ever, EVER admit that he did something wrong. The good things are always to his credit, even if he had nothing to do with them; the bad things are ALWAYS someone else's fault. That's how he has behaved for 40 or 50 years in business, and that's how he is running his presidency. MAGA.
PrevNextReturn to Just Politics


Messages in this Thread
 Recession? - MikeC/TX on 8/14/19 7:50pm
 A differing point of view. - bagger on 8/16/19 6:21pm
 Re: A differing point of view. - MikeC/TX on 8/17/19 5:30pm
 Re: A differing point of view. - shooterclay on 8/17/19 9:33pm
 Re: A differing point of view. - MikeC/TX on 8/18/19 5:49pm



 
Find a Notary   Notary Supplies   Terms   Privacy Statement   Help/FAQ   About   Contact Us   Archive  
 
Notary Rotary™ is a trademark of Notary Rotary. Copyright © 2002-2024, Notary Rotary, Inc.  All rights reserved.
500 New York Ave, Des Moines, IA 50313.